Publications

2017 Hoggarth, J.A., M. Restall, J.W. Wood, and D.J. Kennett. Drought and its Demographic Effects in the Maya Lowlands. Current Anthropology 58(1):82-113.

Current Anthropology Press Release: A new Current Anthropology article looks at how climate change may have affected Maya society.

The mystery of the ‘Classic Maya collapse’ has intrigued both scholars and the public for centuries. Paleoclimate and archaeological studies show that episodes of severe drought correspond with the breakdown of Classic Maya political systems and widespread population decline across the region. However, the nature of these demographic changes is not well understood.

To explore these issues, an interdisciplinary team of archaeologists, historians, and demographers compiled Colonial Period (AD 1519-1821) historic records from across Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula. Their findings are published in an article titled “Drought and Its Demographic Effects in the Maya Lowlands,” in the February issue of Current Anthropology.

The team, led by Julie Hoggarth from Baylor University, showed that significant population declines immediately followed multi-year droughts between the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries. Historic texts recorded agricultural crises associated with high mortality, indicating a strong relationship between demographic stability and available food resources.

Hoggarth describes, “This study shows that colonial populations, who largely relied on rainfed agriculture like the Classic Maya, were vulnerable to severe droughts. We know that the Maya area experienced significant population decline associated with multi-year droughts between the eighth and ninth centuries. We are only beginning to fully explore the nature of those demographic changes.” Understanding how climatic events impacted ancient societies is important for developing long-term perspectives and policies to deal with climate change in modern times.

2016 Hanna, J.A., E.A. Graham, D.M. Pendergast, J.A. Hoggarth, D.L. Lentz, and D.J. Kennett. A New Radiocarbon Sequence from Lamanai, Belize: Two Bayesian Models from One of Mesoamerica’s Most Enduring Sites. Radiocarbon 58(4):771-794.

The ancient Maya community of Lamanai, Belize, is well known for its span of occupation from the Early Preclassic (before 1630 BC) to the present. Although most centers in the central and southern Maya Lowlands were abandoned during the Terminal Classic period (AD 750–1000), ceramic and stratigraphic evidence at Lamanai has shown continuous occupation from the start of the Early Preclassic to the Spanish Conquest. In this paper, we present the first complete set of radiocarbon dates from this important site, including 19 new accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14 C dates. We use these dates to build Bayesian models for a Terminal Classic structure and an Early Postclassic structure in the site center. This method assists in the refinement of older, conventional dates and provides key chronological information about the site during this volatile time. Adjustments to the standard, uniform distribution model are made using exponential, long-tail, and trapezoidal distributions to incorporate outlier samples and more accurately portray ceramic phases. Because of changes in construction behavior in the Terminal Classic, it is difficult to acquire primary samples from this period, but there remains enough overlap between dates and ceramic phases to deduce persistent occupation at Lamanai during the transition from Late Classic to Postclassic times.

2016 Ebert, C.E., J.A. Hoggarth, and J.J. Awe. Integrating Quantitative Lidar Analysis and Settlement Survey in the Belize River Valley. Advances in Archaeological Practice 4(3):284-300.

Accurate and high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) data have become increasingly important for the discovery and visualization of complete archaeological settlement systems in the Maya Lowlands. We present the results of systematic quantitative analysis of lidar data and ground verification for the major centers of Cahal Pech, Baking Pot, and Lower Dover in the Belize Valley. The Belize Valley is characterized by high density populations living in growing modern towns and villages, and by large-scale agricultural production. This urban environment presents a challenge to reconnaissance efforts since modern construction and agricultural activities have destroyed ancient ruins and created new vegetation patterns. Lidar data was analyzed within a GIS using the Topographic Position Index (TPI) to identify the location of possible archaeological remains. Small-scale, site-level TPI analysis helped identify more detailed archaeological features including small house mounds, terraces, and ditches. Results indicate that lidar data recorded for areas with dense vegetation (e.g., low brush and secondary regrowth) may be less reliable for identification of archaeological remains. The quantitative and qualitative differences between spatial analyses and pedestrian survey results among land cover types indicate that traditional settlement pattern study methods, including pedestrian survey, remain vital to ground-truthing all types of spatial data.

2016 Ebert, C.E., J.A. Hoggarth, and J.J. Awe. Classic Maya Water Management and Ecological Adaptation in the Belize River Valley. Research Reports in Belizean Archaeology 13:109-119.

Archaeological research investigating prehistoric water management in the Maya lowlands has identified the diversity and complexity of ancient human adaptations to changing environments and socio-economic landscapes. Our research at the medium-sized Maya center of Baking Pot, located in the Belize River Valley, has explored a water management system composed of a lattice system of ditches located in the southwestern periphery of the site. In this paper, we report the results of spatial analyses of LiDAR remote sensing data that has helped to reveal the nature and extent of this ditch system. Field reconnaissance conducted in 2015 confirmed the presence of ~23.5 linear km of ditches. Residential mounds interspersed between ditched areas were also recorded, perhaps indicating that ditches may delineate spatially distinct settlement clusters. We suggest that water management at Baking Pot became increasingly important during the Late Classic Period (AD 600-900) in the face of population increase, anthropogenic degradation of the landscape, and climate change. Models of settlement and migration derived from human behavioral ecology may provide insights into the role of the ditch system as an adaption that allowed the inhabitants of Baking Pot become more resilient in the face of changing social and natural ecological systems.

2016 Hoggarth, J.A., S.F.M. Breitenbach, B.J. Culleton, C.E. Ebert, M.A. Masson, and D.J. Kennett. The Political Collapse of Chichén Itzá in Cultural and Climatic Context. Global and Planetary Change 138:25-42.

BBC Earth (22 February 2016): Severe droughts explain the fall of the Maya. We might finally know why the Maya abandoned their impressive limestone cities about 1,000 years ago. The Maya’s towering limestone cities – a classic feature of one of the ancient world’s most advanced societies – were already being reclaimed by the jungle. The question of how the Maya met their end is one of history’s most enduring mysteries. The Maya people survived; they even managed to stage a long resistance to European rule. But by the time the Europeans made landfall, the political and economic power which had erected the region’s iconic pyramids, and had at one time sustained a population of some two million people, had vanished …. While the southern Maya civilisation began to disintegrate, the north enjoyed relative prosperity, with the rise of a number of thriving urban centres. These included one of the greatest of all Maya cities, Chichen Itza (one of the world’s “New Seven Wonders”). This northern resurgence flies against the drought theory of the Maya’s demise: if the south was permanently crippled by the climate shift, critics argue, then why wasn’t the north?

Researchers have proposed various explanations for this north-south discrepancy, but so far no one theory has won out. Recently, however, a new discovery has gone some way towards resolving this enduring paradox. Now, in a study published in December, archaeologists from the US and the UK have brought together for the first time all of the calculated ages for urban centres in the northern Maya lands. These comprise about 200 dates from sites across the Yucatan peninsula, half obtained from stone calendar inscriptions and half from radiocarbon dating. The researchers could then construct a broad picture of what times the northern Maya cities had been active, and the times when they each might have fallen into decline. What the team found significantly changes our understanding of when, and perhaps even how the Maya civilisation met its end. Contrary to previous belief, the north had suffered a decline during a time of drought – in fact, it had suffered two of them.

There was a 70% decline in stone calendar inscriptions in the second half of the 9th Century. This same pattern of decline is also echoed in radiocarbon dates across the northern Maya region, which indicate that wooden construction also dwindled during the same time period. Importantly, this is the time that the droughts are believed to have caused the collapse of the Maya civilisation in the south – evidently the north didn’t come through these droughts unscathed after all. The researchers believe that this waning of creative activity shows that political and societal collapse was underway in the north. The north certainly fared better than the south during the 9th Century, but these new findings suggest that the region nevertheless suffered a significant decline. This northern decline had previously escaped detection mostly due to the subtle nature of the evidence: a decline in construction, even one as large as this, is hard to spot without the comprehensive, region-wide analysis provided by the new study.

The northern decline of the 9th Century is an intriguing new detail in the Maya’s story, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter it – after all, we already knew that the northern Maya had survived past the 9th Century droughts (Chichen Itza and other centres thrived until well into the 10th Century).

But the second decline the team identified does change our understanding of the Maya’s story. After a short recovery during the 10th Century (which, interestingly, was coincident with an increase in rainfall), the researchers noticed another slump in construction at numerous sites across the northern Maya territory: stone carving and other building activity seems to have fallen by almost half between AD1000 and 1075. What’s more, just like the crisis 200 years earlier, the researchers discovered that this 11th Century Maya decline also took place against a backdrop of severe drought. And not just any drought. The ones in the 9th Century had certainly been severe. But the 11th Century brought the worst drought that the region had seen for fully 2,000 years – a “megadrought”.

2015 Hoggarth, J.A. and J.J. Awe. Household Adaptation and Reorganization in the Aftermath of the Classic Maya Collapse at Baking Pot, Belize. In R.K. Faulseit (ed.) Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization, and Reorganization in Complex Societies, pp. 853-886. Occasional Paper 42, Center for Archaeological Investigations. Southern Illinois University, Carbondale.

Research focusing on the sociopolitical collapse of Classic Maya society is abundant, detailing the processes of depopulation, abandonment, and the decline of elite paraphernalia in the central and southern Maya lowlands. Although the large number of studies focus on the processes of collapse, less attention has focused on the internal social responses by households to the dissolution of Classic political institutions. This study focuses on changing strategies of adaptation and reorganization by commoner and noble households in a community within the Baking Pot polity of western Belize. Results from this study indicate that after the palace complex and settlement of Baking Pot were abandoned during the Late to Terminal Classic period (A.D. 600 to 900), the area was reoccupied during the Postclassic period in Settlement Cluster C, developing new forms of economic, political, and ideological organization. Using a quantitative approach to examine changes in the distribution of mercantile goods, feasting materials, and ritual deposits and iconography, noble and commoner households were found to employ variable strategies of social differentiation, community integration, and religious adaptation in the context of the disintegration of the state as well as in the subsequent period of social reorganization of the community in the Postclassic period.

2015 Awe, J.J., C.E. Ebert, and J.A. Hoggarth. Three K’atuns of Pioneering Settlement Research: Preliminary Results of the Lidar Survey in the Belize River Valley. In Breaking Barriers: Proceedings of the 47th Annual Chacmool Conference, pp. 57-75. University of Calgary: Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

In the history of Mesoamerican archaeology, the upper Belize River remains most famous as the sub-region of the Mundo Maya where settlement survey was first introduced by Gordon Willey and his colleagues more than half a century ago. The recent application of Lidar survey to this area once more serves to place the Belize Valley at the vanguard of Maya settlement research. This paper serves to demonstrate how the use of Lidar technology is helping to identify new archaeological sites in the region, how it is providing considerable detail for understanding the ancient Belize Valley landscape, and how its application can contribute significantly to our understanding of the socio-political organization of the area.

2014 Hoggarth, J.A., B.J. Culleton, J.J. Awe, and D.J. Kennett. Questioning Postclassic Continuity at Baking Pot, Belize, Using AMS 14C Direct Dating of Human Burials. Radiocarbon 56(3):1057-1075.

Archaeologists working in the Belize Valley have argued for the persistence of Maya populations from the Classic (AD 300–900) through Postclassic (AD 900–1500) periods since Gordon Willey’s groundbreaking settlement survey and excavation work in the 1950s. This is contrary to the trajectory recorded in some parts of the Maya region where there is clear evidence for political disruption and population decline at the end of the Classic period. The argument for continuous Classic to Postclassic occupation in the Belize Valley remains ambiguous due to researchers’ reliance on relative ceramic chronologies. This article reports the results of direct accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating of human skeletons (n = 12) from the important center of Baking Pot, Belize, which is thought to provide some of the best ceramic evidence for continuity in the valley. The AMS dates show a long span of mortuary activity between the Middle Preclassic and Late Classic periods (405 cal BC to cal AD 770), with a hiatus in activity during the Early Postclassic (cal AD 900–1200) and subsequent activity in the Late Postclassic (cal AD 1280–1420). These results are not consistent with the idea that Baking Pot was occupied continuously from the Classic through Postclassic periods. This work highlights the need for additional AMS 14C work at Baking Pot and elsewhere to establish absolute chronologies for evaluating the political and demographic collapse of Classic Maya regional centers.

2014 Awe, J.J., J.A. Hoggarth, and C. Helmke. Prehistoric Settlement Patterns in the Upper Belize River Valley and Their Implications for Models of Low-Density Urbanism. Acta Mesoamericana 27:263-286.

Beginning with Gordon Willey’s settlement pattern study at Barton Ramie more than half a century ago, continuous settlement research in the Belize River Valley makes this area one of the most intensively studied sub-regions of the Maya Lowlands. Recent analysis of this rich database now indicates that in spite of differences in their historical development, location, and general configuration, none of the major centers in the valley ever significantly exceeded the size or socio-political stature of their other neighbors. Our investigations further demonstrate that although some sites were occupied for more than a thousand years, settlements around these centers remained relatively dispersed in a manner that is consistent with models of low-density urbanism. In addition to describing the settlement landscape of the upper Belize River Valley, this paper also addresses causal factors that may account for the persistence of this settlement type over time.

2014 Hoggarth, J.A. and J.J. Awe. Strategies of Household Adaptation and Community Organization at Classic and Postclassic Baking Pot. Research Reports in Belizean Archaeology 11:31-42.

This study focuses on the adaptations of households to the processes of social reorganization due to the collapse of institutionalized rulership at Baking Pot, located in the upper Belize River Valley of western Belize. Breaking from the strict social hierarchies of the Classic period, households were increasingly participating in mercantile exchange in the Terminal Classic and Postclassic periods, with exotic luxury items becoming more evenly distributed throughout the community, particularly among commoner households. New relationships between noble and commoner households were forged, as noble households hosted large-scale community feasts during the Terminal Classic and Postclassic periods. Although households were not found to have been utilizing Pan-Mesoamerican symbols as a form of status differentiation, they did display Maya iconography on ceramics and other media, demonstrating a sense of shared identity and cohesion. However, this and other forms of shared identity, such as burial practices, shifted in the Postclassic period. Overall, households at Baking Pot developed innovative strategies to adapt to the changing social landscape following the sociopolitical collapse of the polity, playing a prominent role in the processes of social reorganization in the Postclassic period. Introduction Over the past 50 years, archaeological studies focusing on the collapse of complex societies have detailed the multifaceted aspects of change in political, economic, and social organization within repetitive cycles of political integration and disintegration (Marcus 1992, 1993). More recently, archaeological studies have focused on the processes of regeneration and reorganization following collapse (Schwartz 2006) as well as resilience in social systems (McAnany and Yoffee 2010). These studies suggest that despite cultural continuities, major changes in social organization and wealth accumulation are a part of regenerative social systems (Kolata 2006). While most studies have focused on political and demographic collapse at the regional or site levels, archaeological studies have begun to examine the ways in which households responded to the processes of political decentralization and social reorganization (Faulseit 2011, 2012; Hoggarth 2012; Hoggarth and Awe n.d.). Here, we explore the political, economic, and ideological strategies that ancient Maya households used to adapt to the collapse of institutionalized rulership. Based on previous studies, we consider how households of different socioeconomic status adjusted to changing social orders, by hosting large-scale community feasts, amplifying participation in long-distance exchange, and adopting forms of Pan-Mesoamerican ideology. Based on excavations at Baking Pot, a major center in western Belize with occupation during the Late Classic (A.D. 600-800), the Terminal Classic (A.D. 800-900), and Postclassic period (A.D. 900-1521) we seek to identify broad patterns of adaptation and reorganization at the household and community level.

2012. Hoggarth, J.A. Social Reorganization and Household Adaptation in the Aftermath of Collapse at Baking Pot, Belize. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

This dissertation focuses on the adaptations of ancient Maya households to the processes of social reorganization in the aftermath of collapse of Classic Maya rulership at Baking Pot, a small kingdom in the upper Belize River Valley of western Belize. With the depopulation of the central and southern Maya lowlands at the end of the Late Classic period, residents in Settlement Cluster C at Baking Pot persisted following the abandonment of the palace complex in the Terminal Classic period (A.D. 800-900). Results from this study indicate that noble and commoner households in Settlement Cluster C continued to live at Baking Pot, developing strategies of adaptation including expanding interregional mercantile exchange and hosting community feasts in the Terminal Classic and Early Postclassic periods. Breaking from the strict social hierarchies of the Classic period, households were increasingly participating in mercantile exchange in the Terminal Classic and Early Postclassic periods, with exotic luxury items becoming more evenly distributed throughout the community, particularly among commoner households. The even distributions of exotic items, coupled with low-level production of local resources, suggests that households were engaging in interregional networks of exchange, although this did not involve a complete reorganization of economic production. New relationships between noble and commoner households were forged, as noble households hosted large-scale community feasts during the Terminal Classic and Early Postclassic periods. Although households were not found to have been utilizing Pan-Mesoamerican symbols as a form of status differentiation, they did display local Maya iconography on ceramics and other media, displaying a sense of shared identity and cohesion. However, this and other forms of shared identity, such as burial practices, shifted in the transition to the Postclassic period. Overall, households at Baking Pot developed innovative strategies to adapt to the changing social landscape following the sociopolitical collapse of the Classic Maya polity, playing a prominent role in the in the processes of social reorganization in the Postclassic period.

2010 Hoggarth, J.A., J.J. Awe, E. Jobbová, and C. Sims. Beyond the Baking Pot Polity: Continuing Settlement Research in the Upper Belize River Valley. Research Reports in Belizean Archaeology 7:171-182.

In the 2007 field season, the Belize Valley Archaeological Reconnaissance project (BVAR) commenced its second phase of settlement survey in the Belize River Valley, building upon the pioneering settlement research undertaken by Gordon Willey in 1956 and continuing the BVAR survey conducted by Jim Conlon in the 1990’s. This paper discusses the results of settlement research at Baking Pot within the context of the project’s regional approach to settlement analysis in the greater Belize Valley. Introduction Although the study of settlement variation across sub-regions of the Maya lowlands is not a new theoretical paradigm, it is these studies which often yield significant new information on the widespread variability in Maya society, particularly in regard to commoner, elite, and royal activities and interactions. In the 1950s, it was Gordon Willey’s pioneering study at Barton Ramie which shifted the focus from large monumental centers and elite-centric views of ancient Maya culture to smaller centers in order to understand the non-elite segment of society (Willey et al. 1965). This study further highlighted the value of utilizing a regional approach in the comparison of centers and their peripheral settlements at various scales in the political spectrum. Willey’s seminal research focused on several sites in the Belize Valley, including Barton Ramie, Baking Pot, Melhado, Floral Park and Spanish Lookout. In the decades following Willey’s pioneering work, archaeological research has continued in the Belize Valley, often focusing on the monumental epicenters and their surrounding settlements. While the social, political and economic organization of these sites is coming into focus, the dynamics of inter-site relationships continues to be dominated by an elite-centric focus based on epigraphic records and monumental architecture. In conjunction with the latter, our study hopes to demonstrate that regional settlement-based research agendas offer another opportunity to examine the relationship between settlement patterns and hierarchical political organization and for determining what factors may have influenced how people organized themselves across the landscape.

Department of Anthropology, Baylor Univeristy